Individual Offensive Ratings Thus Far

dave@friarblog —  December 10th, 2008 4:50 AM
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Let’s take a look at some advanced individual stats through the first 9 games as compared with last season.  It’s a bit unfair to compare this year statistics so far against last year’s that include 18 tough BIG EAST games, but given the new coach and roster, it’s fun to see what direction the team may be heading.

Here is an intro to some stats that will be used:

From Ken Pomeroy’s blog

Offensive Rating (ORtg): Points scored per 100 offensive possessions.

What is a possession?: We can estimate possessions very well from box score stats by using this formula: FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA

Percentage of shots taken (%Shots): This is the percentage of a team’s shots taken, while the player is on the court. This is a pretty good proxy for %Poss, and significantly easier to calculate. It is PlayerFGA / (%Min * TeamFGA).

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Let’s take a look at the ‘Band of Eight’ (as KMac referred to Keno’s 8 man rotation) in order of most minutes played.

Note: The Friars as a team have a raw offensive rating of 107.8 (69th in the nation as of Tuesday before games)

I also threw in the points per game for S-N-G (shits ‘n giggles)

1. WEYINMI EFEJUKU (27.9 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 98.5 ORtg

2008-09: 109.0 ORtg

Change: +10.5

Shot %

2007-08: 24.8%

2008-09: 22.6%

Change: -2.2%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 11.6

2008-09: 13.2

Change: +1.6

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2. SHARAUD CURRY (27.1 Minutes per game)

Going to compare with his sophomore year

Offensive Rating

2006-07: 106.8 ORtg

2008-09: 105.3 ORtg

Change: -1.5

Shot %

2006-07: 23.5%

2008-09: 17.1%

Change: -6.4%

Points Per Game

2006-07: 15.3

2008-09: 7.7

Change: -7.6

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3. GEOFF MCDERMOTT (26.8 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 99.6 ORtg

2008-09: 87.8 ORtg

Change: -11.8

Shot %

2007-08: 15%

2008-09: 16%

Change: +1%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 10.3

2008-09: 7.7

Change: -2.6

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4. JONATHAN KALE (26 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 95.4 ORtg

2008-09: 105.2 ORtg

Change: +9.8

Shot %

2007-08: 18.5%

2008-09: 20.5%

Change: +2%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 4.9

2008-09: 12.4

Change: +7.5

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5. BRIAN MCKENZIE (23.9 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 112.2 ORtg

2008-09: 86.9 ORtg

Change: -25.9

Shot %

2007-08: 21.6%

2008-09: 17.7%

Change: -3.9%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 10.9

2008-09: 6.2

Change: -4.7

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6. JEFF XAVIER (23.6 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 108.4 ORtg

2008-09: 101.7 ORtg

Change: -6.7

Shot %

2007-08: 23.2%

2008-09: 21.8%

Change: -1.4

Points Per Game

2007-08: 12.4

2008-09: 8.6

Change: -3.8

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7. MARSHON BROOKS (23.4 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 92.9 ORtg

2008-09: 129.5 ORtg

Change: +36.6

Shot %

2007-08: 22.9%

2008-09: 26%

Change: +3.1%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 3.4

2008-09: 14.1

Change: +10.7

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8. RANDALL HANKE (15.7 Minutes per game)

Offensive Rating

2007-08: 118.6 ORtg

2008-09: 126.6 ORtg

Change: +8

Shot %

2007-08: 22.6%

2008-09: 19%

Change: -3.6%

Points Per Game

2007-08: 8.7

2008-09: 8.0

Change: -0.7

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CHANGES IN OFFENSIVE RATING:

Curry: N/A

Marshon Brook: +36.6

Weyinmi Efejuku: +10.5

Jonathan Kale: +9.8

Randall Hanke: +8

Jeff Xavier: -6.7

Geoff McDermott: -11.8

Brian McKenzie: -25.9

CHANGES IN SHOT %:

Curry: N/A

Marshon Brook: +3.1%

Jonathan Kale: +2%

Geoff McDermott: +1%

Jeff Xavier: -1.4

Weyinmi Efejuku: -2.2%

Randall Hanke: -3.6%

Brian McKenzie: -3.9%

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Nothing here is really surprising, given we all know that Marshon has been the most consistent offensive player on the court, and Brian McKenzie has been disappointing.  I’m actually pretty surprised that McKenzie has been logging as many minutes as he has been, since he’s been so quiet out there.  Either way, BMac is taking less shots, and doing way less when he does shoot.

However, I did find it interesting that all the guards except for Brooks are taking less shots than last year, with McDermott and Kale having a slight increase in percentage of shots taken.  One reason could be that Kale is no longer in Tim Welsh’s doghouse, averaging twice the amount of minutes he played last season and obviously getting more touches.  However, I think the main factor is that the Friars actually have a point guard this year! Curry is obviously making a difference, even if it has been a slow progress.  It will be interesting to keep an eye out for how the Friars’ front court performs as the season continues.

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