The Effect of Losing Greedy

dave@friarblog —  January 19th, 2010 5:10 PM
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Just before halftime of PC’s blowout loss against Marquette, Jamine Peterson was ejected from the game for a flagrant elbow to Joseph Fulce.  The officials didn’t quite catch it at first, but used a new rule to replay the incident to determine that Greedy did in fact use a cheap elbow to the face to get position.

By that point in the game, the damage had already been done.  Marquette, a dangerous team from behind the arc, hit wide open three after wide open three to take a 16 point lead at the half (it was actually shocking it wasn’t more).  Without Peterson for the entire 2nd half, the Friars would be even in more trouble on both ends of the court.

In one of the game articles for the Providence Journal, Kevin McNamara writes: Peterson’s ejection leaves Friars short on offense

The loss of Peterson was an obvious blow to the Friars. Marquette went on a 22-7 run at the beginning of the second half and put an already improbable comeback out of reach.

Without Peterson, Marquette controlled the boards. The Golden Eagles outrebounded the Friars, 33-24. The Friars looked lifeless in the final 20 minutes without their No.1 offensive option.

Let’s break down the offensive efficiency ratings of both teams by half, to see if there was any difference by the numbers.

Note: The efficiency ratings are how many points would be scored in 100 possessions.

PROVIDENCE

1st Half – 96.67

2nd Half – 94.4

It’s interesting to see how similar the offense produced (well, or not produced) with and without Greedy.  Vincent Council was already taking more shots than usual in the first half, but he had to step up even more with one less weapon out there.  By increasing his season average of possession percentage by 10%, Council was able to beat his season high in scoring in the 2nd half alone (16 points, ended with 24 points total).  Other than Council, no other Friar used more possessions than usual — Sharaud Curry actually used less.

The Friars also scored 14 points in the paint in the 2nd, compared with only 8 in the first.

MARQUETTE

1st Half – 150

2nd Half – 133.3

Obviously Marquette dropped in the 2nd half because they could not keep up their torrid shooting (although they came pretty damn close).  With such a big lead in the 2nd, they didn’t have to keep launching away from downtown.  The Golden Eagles scored 20 points in the paint in the 2nd half, compared with 16 in the first.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Lazar Hayward scored 17 points in the 2nd without Greedy down low.

How About Rebounding?  Let’s take a look at the breakdown of offensive rebounding percentage.

PROVIDENCE

1st Half – 23.07%

2nd Half – 27.77%

MARQUETTE

1st Half – 45.45%

2nd Half – 38.46%

Peterson wasn’t even having a great rebounding game (0 offensive rebounds in 18 minutes), so it’s not surprising to see that the team put up relatively similar numbers each half.  What was surprising is that Vincent Council was the only Friar to have more than 1 offensive rebound, leading the team with 3.

Based on his first half before the ejection, it did not appear that Greedy would be a huge factor in this game. In fact, the team produced and rebounded just as equally in both halves.

Hey, at least the Friars put together two consistent halves for once!  Playing a more talented team on their own home court who can shoot lights out is generally going to end poorly for PC, with or without Greedy.

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