2012 Scouting Report from Kenpom

Daniel "The Warrior Friar" James —  November 3rd, 2011 12:25 PM —  Comments
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With the season rapidly approaching everyone is speculating how we’ll do – so far I’ve heard winless to 9 conference wins. Kenpom, everyone’s favorite numbers site, breaks it down, predicting a 15-16 finish with 6-12 in conference, including a .008% chance of going winless in conference. I think we can all agree that 6 wins is not bad but there are some serious nailbiters and close games being predicted that, if swung in our favor, could add some nice marquee wins to a season that was otherwise written off. Who knows, play it right and we might just end up in the CBI or the NIT! Dare to dream!

I’ve put the schedule with the predictions below, and included a link to PC’s main page on Kenpom. So what do you guys think? Do you agree? Think it’ll be more? Less? Think we can steal some of those close ones or let ones we’re predicted to win slip away? Tweet or comment and let’s get some discussion going.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?&team=Providence

Date Opponent Result Location Record Conf
Sat Nov 12 339 Fairleigh Dickinson W, 88-63 73 97% Home
Mon Nov 14 94 Fairfield L, 75-71 72 33% Away
Sat Nov 19 321 Florida A&M W, 85-66 73 93% Home
Tue Nov 22 341 Southern W, 86-60 71 98% Home
Fri Nov 25 123 Iowa St. W, 80-79 76 53% Neutral
Sat Nov 26 66 Northern Iowa L, 71-68 66 38% Neutral
Tue Nov 29 209 Holy Cross W, 82-71 72 81% Home
Thu Dec 1 101 South Carolina L, 78-74 74 35% Away
Mon Dec 5 243 Brown W, 89-75 76 85% Home
Thu Dec 8 175 Boston College W, 79-71 69 76% Home
Sat Dec 10 318 Bryant W, 86-67 72 93% Home
Tue Dec 20 294 New Hampshire W, 76-61 68 90% Home
Fri Dec 23 180 Rhode Island W, 76-75 73 51% Away
Tue Dec 27 107 St. John’s L, 78-73 73 36% Away
Sat Dec 31 48 Georgetown L, 79-69 70 20% Away
Wed Jan 4 5 Syracuse L, 82-72 72 20% Home
Sat Jan 7 75 Seton Hall W, 78-76 75 55% Home
Tue Jan 10 8 Louisville L, 80-72 74 26% Home
Sat Jan 14 5 Syracuse L, 87-68 72 7% Away
Sat Jan 21 21 Marquette L, 81-76 73 34% Home
Wed Jan 25 7 Pittsburgh L, 82-66 68 9% Away
Sun Jan 29 84 South Florida L, 74-68 68 31% Away
Wed Feb 1 106 Rutgers W, 75-71 69 63% Home
Sun Feb 5 26 West Virginia L, 76-72 69 35% Home
Tue Feb 7 39 Villanova L, 83-70 71 16% Away
Sat Feb 11 84 South Florida W, 72-70 68 58% Home
Wed Feb 15 33 Cincinnati L, 79-67 69 16% Away
Sat Feb 18 48 Georgetown L, 75-73 70 45% Home
Sat Feb 25 149 DePaul L, 81-79 75 44% Away
Tue Feb 28 6 Connecticut L, 78-69 71 21% Home
Fri Mar 2 34 Notre Dame L, 84-71 70 16% Away
Projected record: 15-16 6-12
Chance of unbeaten record: 0.00% 0.00%
Chance of winless record: 0.00% 0.08%
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of
winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.
Home games played at Dunkin’ Donuts Center (12,410, 57th largest in D-I)
Games against opponents yet to be determined are not included in the upcoming schedule.
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Comments

  1. friarblog says:

    6-12 projected finish in the BE seems pretty generous. I know the records aren’t supposed to match up with each individual projection, but what other 3 games do you think we can win? DePaul, St. John’s and….man, the schedule is pretty tough

    1. Daniel James says:

       DePaul, St. Johns, and either we catch Georgetown napping or we get it done at the Sun Dome against USF.

      Additionally, my big time upset ultimate surprise prediction: Pittsburgh, with an additional nod towards West Virginia

      1. friarblog says:

        I dunno man, when is the last time we beat WV?

        1. Daniel James says:

          February 20, 2007 – exactly my point, we’re long overdue for an upset on the rednecks!

          1. friarblog says:

            Wow that lately? I feel like they’ve been blowing us out for the last 10 years

          2. If a Division II team can beat WVU, maybe we can too. Right?

  2. Jimbaring says:

    the prediction says we only win 3 big east games not 6

    1. friarblog says:

      I thought the same thing when I first saw it, but there is a line under the chart

      “Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of
      winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.”

      1. Daniel James says:

        exactly – i put 6-12 in the description because of the final predictions, not the game by game. 

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